Modelling Lactation Performance in Frieswal Cows: A Comparative Study of Mathematical Models

Prakash Kumar  Kumawat; Mujahida Sayyed; Tufleuddin Biswas; L. S. Shekhawat; Umesh Singh; Pradeep Mishra; Kuldeep Rajput

Authors

Prakash Kumar Kumawat Department of Statistics, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Jabalpur ,India
Mujahida Sayyed JNKVV, Jabalpur,M.P. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7692-8476
Tufleuddin Biswas Symbiosis Statistical Institute, Symbiosis International(Deemed University),Pune,India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7978-5098
L. S. Shekhawat College of Agriculture, Jawahar Lal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Jabalpur, India
Umesh Singh Department of Statistics, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Jabalpur ,India
Pradeep Mishra College of Agriculture, Jawahar Lal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Rewa, India https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4430-886X
Kuldeep Rajput Department of Statistics, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwavidyalaya, Jabalpur ,India https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8421-9426

Keywords:

Gamma-Type Function, Frieswal Cows, Holstein Friesian, Lactation Curve, Monthly Test Day, R2, RMSE, Non-Linear Models, Peak Yield, Persistency of Production

Abstract

The present study was undertaken to compare four non-linear lactation curve models (Gamma-Type (GT), Mixed Logarithmic (ML), Wilmink (WL) and Quadratic (QD)) to describe the monthly milk yield patterns in Frieswal cows using the data of five lactations (2019-2024) at JNKVV, Jabalpur. Model performance was evaluated on criteria of peak yield, persistency, time to peak production and goodness of fit. The Gamma-Type model had the best overall accuracy, particularly at the end of lactation, with high and consistent coefficients of determination (R2adj = 0.977–0.988). The best fit for cows in their first lactation was obtained by the Mixed Logarithmic model (R2adj = 0.943), indicating that this model is appropriate for early parity dynamics. The Wilmink model matched the early lactation trends well, but with a relatively lower explanatory power (R2adj = 0.921–0.977). The Quadratic model showed little flexibility to describe the non-linear nature of lactation curves (R2adj = 0.918–0.978). Peak milk yield of Frieswal cows was observed in the second month of lactation. The findings highlight the significance of parity-based model selection to enhance the accuracy of milk yield prediction and enable more effective herd management strategies.